2020年越南房地产市场前瞻 Real Estate Market Outlook 2020 in Vietnam

Updated: Apr 26


​前言 Exordium


      众所周知,越南已经成为越来越多海外投资者的青睐,在此便不作赘述,这篇文章是要向广大投资者展现全球新冠疫情爆发下,对越南房地产市场的前瞻。我们将从经济、公寓、办公楼和零售这4个方面进行阐述。今天,先带来经济和公寓的分析。

      As everyone knows, Vietnam has become the favor of more and more overseas investors and no need further explanation here. This article aims to show the investors the prospect of Vietnam's real estate market under the outbreak of COVID-19. We will illustrate from four aspects including economy, condominium, office and retail. Today, we start with an analysis of economy and condominium.


01. 经济 Economy


新冠疫情的爆发将给GDP增长带来压力

COVID-19 outbreak set to weigh on gdp growth

      越南2019年的GDP增长率为7.02%,超过了政府的预测。尽管中美贸易争端以及区域地缘政治的局势紧张,但经济仍实现了惊人的增长。贸易活跃成为经济增长的强劲推动力,出口总额达2635亿美元,进口总额达2535亿美元,致使贸易顺差达99亿美元,为2016年以来最高水平。同比年通货膨胀增长率为2.7%,是3年来的最低水平。

      Vietnam’s GDP growth rate registered 7.02% in 2019, exceeding government forecasts. The impressive growth came in spite of U.S.-China trade conflict and regional geopolitical tension. Growth was driven by strong trading activity, with total export values recording US$263.5 billion and total import values standing at US$253.5 billion, leading to a trade surplus of US$9.9 billion, the highest since 2016. Inflation stood at 2.7% y-o-y (year over year), the lowest in three years.

      在新冠全球疫情爆发之前,人们曾预期今年将是经济增长强劲的一年。然而,由于全球疫情爆发加剧,亚洲开发银行认为,鉴于依赖中国市场,东盟国家将遭受经济下行。尽管面临经济增长明显减速,越南经济预计将是东盟国家内唯一强劲的。确切地说,它的GDP增长将在2020年降至4.8%,2021年恢复到6.8%。

      Prior to the global escalation of the COVID-19 outbreak, expectations had been for another robust year of economic growth. However, due to the outbreak intensification across countries worldwide, the Asian Development Bank believes that ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries will endure economic slowdown, given their dependence on China’s market. Even though facing significant deceleration in economic growth, Vietnam’s economy is expected to be uniquely robust in the region. Specifically, the country’s GDP growth will drop to 4.8% in 2020 and will recover to 6.8% in 2021.

      越南的制造业(特别是手机、电脑、电器、汽车、服装和鞋类)严重依赖中国的零部件和原材料。供应中断迫使许多当地生产商自1月份以来暂时停产,导致2020年第一季度出口增长非常缓慢。越南还依赖美国和中国作为大米、水果和橡胶等主要农产品的出口市场。随着最近美国疫情的爆发,越南出口产生负面影响。2020年一季度,同比年出口增长率0.5%,远低于2019年同期4.7%的同比年增长率。

      Vietnam’s manufacturing sector (especially cellphones, computers, appliances, vehicles, apparel and footwear) is heavily dependent on China for spare parts and raw materials. Disruption to supply has forced many local producers to temporarily cease production since January, leading to a very low growth in exports in Q1 2020. Vietnam is also dependent on the United States and China as export markets for major agricultural products such as rice, fruits and rubber. With the newly outbreak in the United States, Vietnam’s exports have been affected negatively. In the first quarter of 2020, exports grew by 0.5% y-o-y, much lower than the 4.7% y-o-y in the same period of 2019.

       2020年3月16日,越南国家银行宣布降低关键利率以支持金融市场流动性。再融资利率由6.0%下调至5.0%,再贴现利率由4.0%下调至3.5%。预计这些调整将有助于为信贷机构创造有利条件,以便重新安排债务偿还期限,并减少受新冠疫情影响的公司利息支付。

      On March 16, 2020, the State Bank of Vietnam announced reductions to key interest rates to support financial market liquidity. The refinancing rate was cut to 5.0% from 6.0%, while the rediscounting rate was reduced from 4.0% to 3.5%. These adjustments are expected to help create favourable conditions for credit institutions to reschedule debt payment deadlines and reduce interest payments for firms affected by COVID-19.

投资需求预计将暂时减弱

Investment demand expected to weaken temporarily

越南的外国直接投资在2019年飙升至10年高点

FDI (foreign direct investment) in vietnam surges to 10-year high in 2019

      2019年,越南继续吸引大量外国直接投资,同比年增长6.7%,达到380亿美元,这是越南第5次出现年度增长。通过购买股票或直接出资进行投资的达到155亿美元,同比年增长上升至56.4%。制造业、加工业以及房地产业持续吸引了大批的外国直接投资,分别占注册资本总额的72%和11%。而越南中央统计局(GSO)预计2020年FDI年增长上升至4%,达到396亿美元,这个预测是新冠爆发之前的,可能会影响2020一整年总投资的流入。

      Vietnam continued to attract significant foreign direct investment in 2019, recording a rise of 6.7% y-o-y to US$ 38 billion, marking the fifth annual increase. Investment through purchasing shares or contributing capital stood at US$15.5 billion, up by 56.4% y-o-y. Manufacturing & processing and real estate continued to attract the bulk of FDI, accounting for 72% and 11%, respectively, of total registered capital. While Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO) expects FDI to rise 4% y-o- y to US$39.6 billion in 2020, this prediction was made prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, which may adversely affect total investment inflows over the course of the year.

投资活跃性暂缓

Investment activity slows temporarily

      截至2020年3月底,由于潜在的跨境投资者无法进行实地考察,多数投资活动搁置。在压抑的投资需求推动下,一旦疫情得到控制,购买可能会有所改善。提供稳定收入流的资产将是重点,而对物流资产的兴趣将随着电子商务行业的稳步增长而增强。

      As of end-March 2020, most investment activity is on hold due to potential cross-border investors being unable to perform site visits. Purchasing is likely to improve once the outbreak has been contained, supported by pent-up investment demand. Assets providing steady income streams will be the focus, while interest in logistics assets will strengthen alongside solid e-commerce industry growth.

旨在促进出口的自由贸易协定

Free trade agreements set to facilitate exports

      2019年1月,《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》正式生效。协议旨在促进至2035年越南GDP达到17亿美元,并且出口超过40亿美元的目标,相当于分别增加1.3%和4.%。

      In January 2019, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership officially came into effect. The agreement is expected to boost Vietnam’s GDP by US$1.7 billion and exports by more than US$4 billion by 2035, representing increases of 1.3% and 4.0% respectively.

      2019年6月,越南与欧盟签署了两项具有里程碑意义的自由贸易协定,即《欧洲-越南自由贸易协定》(EVFTA)和《欧盟与越南投资保护协定》(EVIPA)。这两项贸易协定预计将取消双方99%以上的出口关税,并优化两地投资者之间的投资和商业环境。

      In June 2019, Vietnam and the European Union signed two landmark free trade deals, namely the EU – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the EU – Vietnam Investment Promotion Agreement (EVIPA). The two trade deals are expected to eliminate over 99% of customs duties on exports in both direction and to boost the investment and business climate for investors between the two regions.

新冠疫情带给旅游市场巨大阻力

Covid-19 poses significant headwinds for tourism market

      越竹航空公司2019年1月开始运营,标志着越南八年来的首次新航线和国内航空市场的竞争加剧。其他几家越南航空公司正在办理建立业务的程序。

      Bamboo Airways commenced operations in January 2019, marking Vietnam’s first new airline in eight years and intensifying competition in the domestic aviation market. Several other Vietnamese aviation firms are in the process of undertaking procedures to establish operations.

       从2019年起,其他旅游业主要包括2月份特朗普—金正日在河内进行的首脑会议,该会议的成功增强了越南作为备受瞩目会议举办地的地位以及推动海外利益。2019年国际游客数量同比增长16.2%,达到1800万人次,创年度新高。中国和韩国仍然是两个主要的旅游客源市场,分别占国际游客总数的32%和23.8%。

       Other tourism highlights from 2019 included February’s Trump – Kim Summit in Hanoi, the success of which augmented Vietnam’s status as a location for high-profile meetings and helped boost overseas interest in the country. The number of international arrivals in 2019 surged by 16.2% y-o-y to 18 million, a record annual total. China and Korea remained the two main tourism source markets, accounting for 32% and 23.8% of total international arrivals, respectively.

      由于新冠爆发导致的旅游限制、检疫法规和不愿旅行将严重影响越南2020年上半年的酒店市场。许多重要赛事,如河内一级方程式大奖赛,已被推迟或取消,预计游客人数在爆发期内将减少至少50% - 60%。

      Travel restrictions, quarantine regulations and reluctance to travel due to the COVID-19 outbreak will severely affect Vietnam’s hospitality market in H1 2020. Many key events such as the Hanoi Formula 1 Grand Prix have already been delayed or canceled, with the number of tourist arrivals expected to decrease by at least 50 – 60% for the duration of the outbreak.


02. 公寓 Condominium


公寓供应

Condominium supply

新楼盘推出从中等到更合理的发展势头

New launches moderate to a more sustainable momentum

      近年来,越南的公寓市场发展到新的领域,引进了更普遍的高质量设计,并采用了先进的销售流程。

      Recent years have seen the condominium market in Vietnam extend development to new areas, introduce a wider range of high quality formats, and adopt advanced sales procedures.

       2014年,河内和胡志明市的新住宅供应量都达到每年1.2万至1.5万套左右,2017年至2018年,这一数字翻了一番,都达到每年约3万套。2019年,胡志明市大约新增了2.6万套住宅,同年在河内新增了3.6万套住宅。

       In 2014, the supply of new residential units in Hanoi and HCMC stood at around 12,000 – 15,000 units per year in each city, a figure that doubled to around 30,000 units per year in each city in 2017-2018. Around 26,000 new units were launched in HCMC in 2019 while 36,000 were added in Hanoi the same year.

      许可证问题、贷款紧缩和新冠爆发等不利因素将在2020年给这两个城市的新公寓供应带来压力。假设疫情在2020年二季度末结束,预计河内和胡志明市在2020年将分别新增约2.7万至2.8万套住宅。

       Headwinds including licensing issues, credit tightening and the COVID-19 outbreak are set to weigh on new condominium supply in both cities in 2020. Assuming that the pandemic ends by the end of Q2 2020, Hanoi and HCMC are expected to each see the addition of approximately 27,000 – 28,000 units during 2020.

      由于城市化节奏快、收入增加、中产阶级不断壮大、贷款便捷及基础设施改善,导致需求依然强劲。由于相对吸引人的投资回报率,虽然外国买家仍对胡志明市和河内保持着浓厚的兴趣,但2020年上半年购买势头的放缓可能会将胡志明市的年销售总量拉低至2.9万套,将河内拉低至2.4万套。

      Demand remains strong thanks to rapid urbanisation, rising incomes, a growing middle class, access to mortgage financing and improving infrastructure. While foreign buyers retain a strong interest in HCMC and Hanoi due to the relatively attractive yield, slow purchasing momentum in H1 2020 may pull down the annual total of sold units to 29,000 in HCMC and 24,000 in Hanoi.

      据世邦魏理仕预测,由于新增供应和产品质量下降,这两个城市的初级产品均价将上涨,同比涨幅在5%至7%之间。

      Average primary prices are projected to increase in both cities due to weaker new supply and product quality, with CBRE forecasting increases of between 5%-7% y-o-y.

      当局和开发商面临的挑战是保持当前的开发速度,同时降低过度活跃的风险。最终客户在评估潜在购置时越来越挑剔,而投资者则在寻求更广泛的选择,以实现投资组合的多样化。

      The challenge facing authorities and developers is to maintain the current pace of development while mitigating the risk of overheating. End-users are increasingly selective when evaluating potential acquisitions, while investors are seeking a wider range of options to diversify their portfolios.

公寓买家和投资者

Condominium buyers and investors

随着需求增长,二手房市场得到拉动

Secondary market gains traction as demand grows

最终客户考虑二手房市场

End-users look to secondary market

      由于一手房量短缺,在河内和胡志明市的核心地区搜寻公寓的最终客户越来越多地转向二手房市场。

      End-users seeking condominium units in core districts of Hanoi and HCMC are increasingly turning to the secondary market due to the lack of primary stock.

      在二手房市场购买有其优点和缺点。从积极的方面来看,公寓已经建成,这意味着买家在购买之前可以仔细察看房子,而不局限于看样板房或楼书。买家也可以选择在二手房中租房,以体验其设施、物业管理水平和周边环境,然后再决定是否买房。缺点是与付款时间点与完工阶段一致的一手房市场相比,有着更严格的付款条件。

      Buying on the secondary market has its advantages and disadvantages. On the positive side, units have already been constructed, meaning that buyers can view the finished property before they purchase, and are not restricted to viewing a show flat or a brochure. Buyers can also opt to rent units in a secondary project to experience its amenities, management quality and the neighbourhood before they commit to a purchase. Disadvantages include tighter payment terms compared to the primary market, where installments coincide with construction phases.

      对于公寓来说,贷款正变得越来越容易,15至20年的贷款期限现在很普遍,对于有信誉的开发商的楼盘来说,可能是35年。可以贷到总价的80%。

      Mortgage loans are becoming easier for condominium projects, with loan-terms of 15-20 years now commonplace, and 35 years possible for projects by reputable developers. Borrowing is capped at 80% of the total unit value.

国外买家和投资者

Foreign buyers and investors

      2019年和2020年一季度,由于高端和顶级房产市场供应不足,投机活动受到限制。在西河内和胡志明市第九区等新兴地区,中端房产项目正成为购房出租投资者的选择。

      Speculative activity was limited in 2019 and in Q1 2020 due to the lack of supply in the high-end and luxury segments. Mid-end projects in emerging locations such as West Hanoi and District 9 in HCMC are emerging as properties of choice among buy-to-let investors.

      近年来,由于价格上涨快和比曼谷、新加坡等其他东南亚市场更吸引人,胡志明市吸引了大量海外投资者的兴趣。然而,由于价格上涨和胡志明市供应不足,海外投资者目前正转投河内。

      HCMC has attracted considerable interest from foreign investors in recent years due to its rapid price growth and relatively attractive value compared to other Southeast Asian markets such as Bangkok and Singapore. However, overseas interest is now turning to Hanoi due to rising prices and a lack of supply in HCMC.

      在越南的外籍人士数量不断增加,将在2020年刺激国外最终客户和投资者对房屋的需求。高端和顶级公寓是人们关注的主要领域,最近发布的报告显示预订量很高,并且预计今年的新楼盘也会卖的很好。

      The rising numbers of expatriates in Vietnam will fuel demand for housing from foreign end-users and investors in 2020. The high-end and luxury condominium segments are the main area of focus, with recent launches reporting high levels of pre-sale reservations and new projects due this year also expected to perform well.

公寓开发商

Condominium developers

土地储备、销售和物业管理的新方法

New approach to land-banking, sales and property management

      买家不断变化的偏好,以及贷款收紧和许可证问题的不确定性,正促使开发商重新考虑土地储备策略、销售模式和物业管理。

      Buyers’ changing preferences and uncertainty around credit tightening and licensing issues are prompting developers to re-think land-banking strategy, sales models and property management.

土地储备策略从黄金地区转移

Land-banking strategy shifts away from prime areas

      胡志明市和河内的黄金地段或发达住宅区的土地越来越少,这使得开发商开始在方便的地方开发新楼盘,尤其是乡镇楼盘,希望从未来基础设施改善中获益。以生活配套、景观和产品类型为特色的差异化楼盘表现良好,这一趋势预计将持续到2020年。

      Land in prime locations or developed residential areas of HCMC and Hanoi and HCMC is increasingly scarce. This has seen developers launch new projects – especially township developments – in convenient locations expected to benefit from future infrastructure improvements. Projects featuring differentiation in terms of amenities, landscaping and product type have performed well – a trend expected to continue in 2020.

      在胡志明市,由于CBD附近有相对可用的土地和良好的基础设施,东部和南部仍然是热点地区。在河内,西部仍然是主要的关注重心,但是东部(嘉林区或范江区)将在2020年成为第二个新土地供应的主要来源。

      In HCMC, the East and the South remain key hotspots due to the relative availability of land near the CBD and good infrastructure. In Hanoi, the West remains the main focus, but the East (Gia Lam or Van Giang district in Hung Yen) will be the second main source of new supply in 2020.

新销售模式且专注于物业管理

New sales model and focus on property management

      激烈的销售竞争鼓励采用新的销售模式。大型楼盘正在采取积极的销售策略,Vinhomes允许63家经销商在第9区分销其乡镇楼盘,胡志明市和20多家经销商在河内分销每一个乡镇楼盘。

      Intense competition for sale is encouraging the adoption of a new sales model. Large projects are pursuing an aggressive sales strategy, with Vinhomes allowing 63 agencies to distribute its township project in District 9, HCMC and more than 20 agencies to distribute each township project in Hanoi.

      售后方面,尤其是物业管理,近年来也变得更加重要,并将在新冠爆发后呈现出一个新的层面。最终客户和投资者现在期望更高标准的物业管理,世邦魏理仕预计,人们对更好的清洁措施的需求将日益增加,并将关注其他与卫生相关的事情。

      Post-sales activity, especially property management, has also become more important in recent years, and is set to take on a new dimension following the COVID-19 outbreak. End-users and investors now expect higher standards of property management, with CBRE anticipating increasing demand for better sanitisation practices and attention to other hygiene-related issues.

      伴随着建造品质高以及准时交付,专业的物业管理将对一家开发商的信誉和未来销售起到至关重要的作用。

      Together with high quality construction and timely handover, professional property management will be critical to shaping a developer’s reputation and generating future sales.

政府政策

Government policy

重点关注法律修订、信贷紧缩和现代化房屋

Focus on law revision, credit tightening and modern housing

      越南政府为确保越南公寓市场保持稳定和可持续的增长势头付出了巨大的努力。

      The Vietnamese government has put great effort into ensuring the Vietnam condominium market maintains a stable and sustainable growth momentum.

修订法律提案

Proposed law revision

      政府目前正在考虑修订《建筑法》、《投资法》和《土地法》的提议。重点审查各法律中如下条款:

      The government is presently considering proposals to revise the Construction Law, Investment Law and Land Law. Key review items in each law include:

《建筑法》(预计2020年5月份审查):

• 审查地方政府对发展楼盘的审批程序

• 审核未拿到施工许可的楼盘

Construction law (due to be reviewed in May 2020):

• Review the approval procedure of development projects by local governments

• Review projects with pending construction licenses

《投资法》(预计2020年5月份审查):

• 解决投资法、投资程序和住房法术语上的不一致

Investment law (due to be reviewed in May 2020):

• Address the inconsistency in terminologies between the investment law, investment procedure and housing law

《土地法》(预计2020年底审查):

• 更新土地法以反映快速增长的房地产市场

Land law (due to be reviewed in late 2020):

• To be updated to reflect the fast-growing real estate market.

信贷紧缩

Credit tightening

      政府已经采取了一些措施来限制过度贷款流向房地产行业。主要措施包括:

      The government has implemented several steps to restrict excessive credit flowing to the real estate sector. Key measures include:

• 越南国家银行将房地产贷款的风险系数从2016年的150%提高到2017年的200%。

• 越南国家银行将用于中长期贷款的短期资本比例从2017年的50%降至2018年的45%、2020年的40%,并计划在2021年和2022年分别降至37%和30%。

• The State Bank of Vietnam increased the risk coefficient for real estate loans from 150% in 2016 to 200% in 2017.

• The State Bank of Vietnam reduced the proportion of short -term capital used for medium- and long-term loans from 50% in 2017 to 45% in 2018, 40% in 2020 and plans to reduce it to 37% in 2021 and 30% in 2022.

      尽管这些措施可能会增加开发商获得资金的障碍,但这些措施旨在确保市场稳定。在经历了一段长时间由信贷推动的强劲开发后,开发商近年来对新项目进行了合理化调整,使供应增长更为保守。

      Although these measures may increase barriers for developers to access funding, the steps aim to ensure market stability. Following a long period of strong credit-fuelled development, recent years have seen developers rationalise new projects, leading to more conservative supply growth.

促进现代化房屋发展

Promotion of modern housing developments

      作为提高生活水平整体重点的一部分,政府正在支持现代化住房理念的发展,如乡镇公寓或地产。

      The government is supporting the development of modern housing concepts such as condominiums or landed property in township developments as part of an overall focus on raising living standards.

      根据越南中央统计局(GSO)的数据,2019年越南人均居住面积为23.2平米,比2009年上升39%。根据《关于2020年国家住房发展战略和2030年规划的第2127/QD - TTg号决定》,目标要增加到2020年的25平米和2030年的30平米。越南人均建筑面积目前仅为在马来西亚、泰国和新加坡的63% - 70%,这意味着存在重大改进的可能性。

      According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), the average living space in Vietnam was 23.2 sqm/person in 2019, an increase of 39% in on 2009. This is targeted to increase to 25 sqm by 2020 and 30 sqm by 2030 in accordance with Decision No. 2127/QD – TTg regarding National housing development strategy to 2020 and vision to 2030. Vietnam’s floor area per person currently stands at just 63% - 70% of that in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, implying significant potential for improvement.

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